It seems like every time something bad happens, there are news stories which talk about the people who warned that the bad thing was going to happen. We saw this again after the Paris attacks. There’s the French judge who said in September that “France is the principal target of an army of terrorists with unlimited means [ISIS].” There were other reports that “Senior Iraqi intelligence officials” warned of “immminent assaults” by ISIS one day before the attack. The headline, “Iraq warned of attacks before Paris assault,” is undermined by its own story, where it says that a senior French security official said that they get this kind of warning “all the time” and “every day.” A warning which is repeated over and over, and eventually comes true, is not a sign of great insight. It’s a sign of fear-mongering.
The French judge, Marc Trevidic, has been prosecuting terrorism cases since at least 2000, and compared term limits causing him to leave his position in 2016, which he compares to Davy Crockett leaving the Alamo in the middle of the battle.
I predict that there will be another major terrorist attack in France. I also predict there will be a terrorist attack in the U.S. When those attacks eventually happen, they won’t prove that I’m a great prognosticator, with great intelligence sources. They’ll simply prove that we live in a dangerous world, where people have freedoms. Freedoms which are important, but can be, and will be, used by some bad actors to do bad things.
Workentin's Cybersecurity Blog 